Análise de cadeia global de valor e risco na piscicultura no Tocantins

Abstract

Fish farming is characterized by cultivation in captivity. Indicated as a way for use of Brazilian water resources, the aquaculture industry is also seen as an alternative to meet the growing demand for animal protein. In Tocantins, the fish farming is expected to be a potential alternative for the economic growth of the region. The lack of information related to this sector, in order to assist the formulation of public policies as well as to provide a situational analysis, stimulated the development of this work, which is divided into two parts. The first one, which has a qualitative nature, is based on data secondary provided by Embrapa Fisheries and Aquaculture and identifies the organizational processes of the fish farming value chain in Tocantins. The second part, quantitative, used information collected from an oriented sample of producers and has evaluated the economic and financial viability of a modal fish farm of tambaqui production in earthen ponds with 50,000 square meters. This evaluation was complemented with the identification of the main risk factors that influence the economic returns on investment by Monte Carlo simulation. The results of the first part showed, from the perspective of Global Value Chain theory, that there are many structural barriers that hinder the expansion of the chain as: delays in environmental licensing, difficult access to financing and long distance traveled between input suppliers and producers which raises the production costs. In the second stage, the deterministic analysis of NPV and IRR indicators indicated that the investment in the production of tambaqui in Tocantins is attractive from an economic and financial point of view. However, from the perspective of risk assessment it was found that the investment project is sensitive to variables "price received by the fish (per kilo)" and "average price of feed (25 kg bag)." Fluctuations in these variables have a direct impact on investment returns, which in certain hypothetical situations can make the investment inviable