O impacto de fatores climáticos sobre empresas agrícolas de soja do estado do Tocantins: o caso da soja

Abstract

The production and export of soybeans is one of the most prominent activities in the state of Tocantins. Despite the growing increase in grain production in the state, little is yet discussed about the measurement of adverse climate impacts on agricultural companies in the grain business. Bearing in mind that the climate is one of the variables of greatest uncertainty for agricultural producers, and that its impacts are relevant both for the international commodities market and for local markets, this study sought to analyze the impact of climatic factors - rainfall and temperature - on soybean productivity in the state of Tocantins in the period from 2002 to 2016. To achieve this goal, a Multiple Linear Regression model with fixed effects was used as an empirical strategy, applied to a panel database, for verification the sensitivity of soybean productivity to climatic variations in the state's soybean production period (October to January) from 2007 to 2016. The results obtained show the negative relationship between temperature and productivity, and the positive relationship between precipitation and productivity, both , more significantly in the month of November. From these results it was possible to better identify the need for agricultural companies in terms of protection against climate risk. Results like this can assist in the decision-making process and design of more efficient agricultural insurance or improve existing ones.