Economía y corrupción: análisis de la eficiencia del gasto público a escala regional en Colombia

Abstract

Corruption is one of the major socioeconomic problems which limits the development of the countries, increases economic inequality among their regions, and thus it limits their economic growth. Corruption measurements in Colombia have shown values above the international average over the last few years. Therefore, the main objective of this thesis was to analyze the efficiency of public spending on a regional scale in Colombia, in order to determine the State risk of corruption. In order to achieve this objective, this work was structured in two sections. In the first section, the corruption risk of the thirty-two territorial entities in Colombia was analyzed. In Chapter 1, a systematic review of the literature on the nature of corruption was carried out. The determining factors for a corruption act to exist were shown. Some methods of measuring corruption were also indicated. The measure with the greatest acceptance at the international level was emphasized, the Corruption Perceptions Index (IPC, from its Spanish acronyms) of Transparency International (TI). In chapter 2, corruption was determined according to the IPC for Casanare. Casanare was the Colombian department with the highest national PIB (from its Spanish acronyms) per capita during the last decades and it is stigmatized by the national government as one of the most corrupt. Due to the various limitations in replicating the same measurement for the remaining thirty-one departments, an alternate measurement called the Golden & Picci Corruption Risk Index (IG&P) was applied, which was developed in Chapter 3. In addition to the IG&P, the Public Entities Transparency Index (ITPE, from its Spanish acronyms) and the Open Government Index (IGA, from its Spanish acronyms) were used in order to obtain a more robust model. Statistically, the results showed that inefficiency and ineffectiveness are directly related concerning the fulfillment of the government duties (IG&P), the socioeconomic development and the income from mining resources exploitation. On the other hand, in the second section of this work, the motor activities or the activities of economic base were analyzed as well as the Colombian export and import structures. Therefore, in Chapter 4, the regional analysis indicators of the Colombian geoeconomy, by branch of productive activity, were estimated. The exercise was carried out for the thirty-two departments, using as reference information from the years 2012 and 2018. The sectors with the greatest capacity to generate employment were analyzed. The data were taken from the Large Integrated Survey of Homes (GEIH, from its Spanish acronyms) of 2018, classification CIIU 3, carried out by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE, from its Spanish acronyms) in 2021. Based on this information, the Location Quotient (CL, from its acronym in Spanish), the Geographic Association Coefficient (CAG, from its acronym in Spanish) and the Employment Multiplier (ME, from its acronym in Spanish) were calculated. The results of these indicators showed which motor activities has each one of the Colombian departments, evidencing the degree of dependence oriented towards some primary and secondary activities, as well as the absence of specialized activities in Science, Technology and Innovation. In Chapter 5, by using international data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity, Colombian exports and imports in the year 2018 were analyzed according to the product type, destination and origin. The results showed that the country depends on 78% of natural resources exports, with 58.8% of the total exported corresponding to mineral products. This percentage represents, at the national level, the compensation royalties for the extraction of non-renewable natural resources or mining, which must be distributed among the producing departments. Eventually, the information obtained in the two previous sections was contrasted in order to relate the efficiency of public spending to the risk of corruption in the thirty-two territorial entities in Colombia. Consequently, Chapter 6 analyzes whether the mining sector, through royalties, is the determining factor of the socioeconomic differential among the Colombian departments. In the case of the royalties sent to all departments, they were analyzed in two specific scenarios: during the Direct Royalty System (SRD, from its acronym in Spanish), from 2002 to 2010, and after the change in national distribution with the new General Royalty System (SGR, from its acronym in Spanish), from the year 2012 to the year 2020. Therefore, the IG&P during the SRD was calculated and contrasted with the results of the SGR. The results showed that, during the SRD, seven departments obtained additional resources as an economic consideration for mining, generating high growth rates and greater risks of corruption in the management of their resources. It was also shown that, with the SGR, 85% of territorial entities improved both their corruption risk index and the efficiency and effectiveness of spending these resources. During the SRD and the SGR, there were major changes in the productive structure of the departments. The departments that generated the highest royalties, such as Casanare and Meta, transformed their agricultural and industrial vocational sectors by participating in the mining sector. In summary, from all the analyzes carried out, it was shown that Colombia is a mining-energy sector economically dependent country. And this sector, through the royalties, is the determining factor of the corruption risk in the country in different levels.