Elementos para um modelo inovador de parcerias público-privadas em infraestrutura de transportes: estudo aplicado à Hidrovia do Rio Tocantins

Abstract

The need for improvement of transport infrastructure is still latent in Brazil, mainly in the Northern Region of the country. However, public resources are insufficient and generally directed to other sectors, causing the public sector to seek alternatives with the participation of the private sector in order to make these investments viable. In the last decades, the growth of infrastructure concessions has been observed, mainly in the modality sponsored, that is, public-private partnerships. This type of contracting requires careful planning in order to avoid vices and critical factors that compromise the success of the concession and end up burdening the public sector. Given the country's economic scenery, a concern regarding new investment projects is how to guarantee fiscal sustainability, provided by law, but difficult to control by the current instruments. In this context, in the transportation sector, infrastructure concession programs have been launched, especially in the road, rail and air sectors. For the waterway sector, the announced programs include ports, but despite the great water potential of the country, water transport requires investments to make navigation in important rivers possible. Although other countries in Latin America, such as Peru and Colombia, have started the waterway concession, in Brazil, investments in the sector are borne by the public sector. The present research seeks to develop elements that contribute to the development of concession models that promote economic growth and evaluate the fiscal balance of public investments through the application of the concepts of Territorial Engineering in a Commercial Consolidation Program applied to the waterway sector. Territorial Engineering proposes a new approach to infrastructure projects, incorporating productive projects in the process, boosting economic growth and generating transportation demand. This concept gains application in the Commercial Consolidation Program, through the proposal of an economic performance concession, associated with the sponsored concession of the infrastructure. Based on a broad literature review, the critical factors were identified for the success of a concession, allowing to define the guidelines that the proposal should address, highlighting aspects of the concessionaire's remuneration, identification and allocation of risks and fiscal sustainability. A method was developed for the evaluation of fiscal sustainability, and other elements necessary for the application of the conceptual model of the Commercial Consolidation Program. The proposal was applied to a case study of the Tocantins Waterway and demonstrated that it is possible to improve the financial indicators of the project by ensuring the fiscal balance of the investment. Risks were identified and allocated, and the proposal formulated allows greater control and management of the risk of demand, considered critical to the success of a concession.