Financeirização e fragilidade financeira: aspectos teóricos e análise empírica das firmas não-financeiras no Brasil entre 2010 e 2019

Abstract

In the last fifty years, the global economy has seen a significant increase in financial markets, both in terms of size and their importance in the dynamics of economies. In line with these changes, the literature began to devote greater attention to the negative effects brought about by the so-called financialization of the economy. At the same time, the successive financial crises experienced in this period bring back attention to the works of Hyman Minsky, in particular his Financial Instability Hypothesis, which seeks to present the endogenous nature of the increase in financial fragility of agents throughout the economic cycle. Despite the attention paid to these two themes, little effort has been made to understand the connections between financialization and financial fragility. With that in mind, the present study aimed to analyze this connection in a theoretical context, as well as, based on an econometric estimation, to analyze the relationship between financialization and the fragility of publicly traded non- financial firms in Brazil between 2010 and 2019. The analysis of the fragility of Brazilian firms showed that between 2007 and 2019 we have a large fluctuation in the financial position of firms within the Minskyan taxonomy. This oscillation appears to be associated with changes in the cycle of economic growth and interest rates in the economy. When analyzing the financialization process of firms between 2010 and 2019, it was not possible to perceive the adoption of a rentier strategy by them, given the drop in the ratio between financial assets and fixed assets and a low participation of financial income in their cash flow. It was observed, however, that over the period of analysis the companies increased their level of leverage, and this process may be associated with a financialization of their liabilities. Furthermore, it was observed that only a small portion of firms' profits is distributed in the form of dividends. The results of the econometric model showed that the increase in the proportion of financial assets in the balance sheets of firms and the increase in the proportion of profits distributed as dividends is associated with a lower level of fragility of firms. Meanwhile, greater dependence on income from financial sources and greater leverage are associated with a higher level of financial fragility.