Mensuração das aglomerações industriais do Tocantins a partir do Quociente Locacional Padronizado: uma abordagem paramétrica com simulação de Monte Carlo para o ano de 2023

Abstract

This study aims to identify and measure sectoral agglomerations of formal employment in the municipalities of the state of Tocantins in 2023, distinguishing persistent productive concentrations from those that can be explained by randomness or by the small size of municipalities. Data from the Annual Social Information Report (RAIS) are used for the 139 municipalities of Tocantins, aggregated into eight broad sectors according to the IBGE National Accounts classification. The productive structure is first analyzed using the Location Quotient (LQ) and then through the Standardized Location Quotient (SLQ), obtained via within-sector standardization. A significance procedure based on a parametric multinomial Monte Carlo simulation was employed, in which sectoral employment is redistributed across municipalities proportionally to their share in total employment, generating sector-specific critical SLQ thresholds. The results show that, depending on the criterion adopted, the LQ overestimates the number of agglomerations, whereas the SLQ approach substantially reduces the number of municipalities classified as specialized, while preserving cores that concentrate expressive shares of sectoral employment. In sectors such as construction, manufacturing, mining and services, most of the state’s employment remains concentrated in a small group of statistically persistent municipalities.