Queimadas ilegais e incêndios florestais no Tocantins: desafios institucionais e implicações territoriais

Abstract

Forest fires represent the greatest disaster in Tocantins, occurring throughout the territory simultaneously and inflicting abnormal situations that affect society. With the phenomenon of climate change, these extreme events will intensify, justifying this study. This thesis seeks to contribute to filling this gap by presenting an analysis of the territorialization and institutionalization of the problem, which includes discussing the burning, especially illegal burning, and the institutions: formal, informal, and their transformation. Thus, the analysis sought to investigate: How is the risk of forest fires and vulnerability to illegal burning perceived in the Tocantins territory? How do organizations mobilize to face the disaster in Tocantins? How are institutions transformed in a state in the crosshairs of fire? And further, does disaster management produce satisfactory governance and results? To answer these questions, the research triangulated methods in the search for self-reinforcing elements, through a case study strategy including: Application of questionnaires, where 715 participants answered 14 questions using the Likert scale, the successive intervals method and Cronbach’s Alpha were used, and the SPSS software helped in the statistical analysis of the sample; in another stage, the semi-structured interview technique was used, where 17 agents who work directly in the management of forest fires, from the three spheres of government, chosen by non-probabilistic criteria, were interviewed; the interviews were transcribed and inserted into the MAXQDA software; and finally, a stage of bibliographic and documentary research, which helped to understand how changes occur and adapt to the protocol of the theory of gradual institutional change. The main results point to the need to distinguish between two phenomena: forest fires, which are disasters requiring a coordinated, multi-scale, and phased technical response, and controlled burns, which are territorially rooted in habits, customs, and routines due to local socioeconomic issues. This distinction emerged from the questionnaire responses. On the other hand, if the problem involves these two phenomena, the best management model needs to consider coexistence with fire, since the suppression model, or zero fire, has proven ineffective, as revealed in the semi-structured interviews. Therefore, by analyzing and confirming that we have ongoing institutional changes, through bibliographic and documentary analysis, another result presented is that the advantageous changes in this analytical framework redistribute power and resources to strategic actors and organizations, allowing us to conclude that in this scenario, the doctrinal tools of Risk Management, provided by the National System of Civil Protection and Defense, are the most appropriate because they allow action in Risk Management (process), and not only in Response (reaction). Since civil defense is a set of actions, we have institutions in essence, which allows shaping the behavior of agents through the Fire Committee. Although it needs to include organized civil society and requires refinements in its actions, it is the indicated model to deal with the problem in Tocantins.